What costs must I include?

Variable: seed, fertiliser, chemicals, fuel for the crop, contract harvesting, grain cartage and storage. Fixed: machinery depreciation and repair, insurance, farm administration, land cost. Excluding fixed costs typically understates break-even by 20-30%.

How to use break-even yield to decide whether to sow?

Calculate BEY as a percentage of the paddock's 5-year average yield. Below 60%: good risk. 60-70%: moderate risk — proceed with a marketing plan. 70-80%: high risk — reduced input package or strong seasonal basis needed. Above 80%: very high risk.

Should I use break-even differently for canola vs wheat?

Yes. Canola has a higher cost of production and much higher crop failure risk than wheat. A canola BEY of 0.9 t/ha against 1.8 t/ha average looks attractive (50% of average), but a 1-in-5 total failure risk means the expected return must include a probability-weighted failure scenario.

Break-Even Yield Calculator — Free Agriculture Calculator

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Pre-seeding budget meeting and the agronomist wants your break-even yield before recommending the nitrogen rate for canola. You need the updated number — including $50/ha extra N cost — before the meeting.

Break-Even Yield Calculator

Finance

Crop area (ha)

Imperial: enter acres

Fixed costs ($)

Machinery, land, overheads — total for season

Variable costs ($/ha)

Seed, fertiliser, chemicals, contracting

Grain price ($/tonne)

Imperial: enter $/bushel (approx)

Break-even yield = Total costs ÷ (Price/t × Area) Reducing break-even yield: Shop for cheaper inputs · Increase grain price through marketing · Reduce variable costs through precision agriculture · Share machinery costs.

💡 Run this calculation at sowing time using forward contract prices to know your risk position before the season starts.

Reference: GRDC — Farm Business Management · WA DPIRD — Farm Business

ℹ️ Results are estimates for planning purposes. Verify with current standards and a qualified professional.

1 What this calculator does

Calculates minimum grain yield to cover all variable and fixed costs of production. Enter total cost per hectare and grain price to find break-even yield in t/ha. Also calculates break-even price for a target yield and gross profit per hectare at expected yield.

2 Formula & professional reasoning

Break-even yield (t/ha) = Total cost per ha ($) / Grain price ($/t)
Break-even price ($/t) = Total cost per ha ($) / Expected yield (t/ha)
Gross profit ($/ha) = (Expected yield - Break-even yield) x Grain price

Break-even yield is the most critical pre-season number for broadacre cropping — it shows whether a crop is worth planting at current prices before a dollar of input is committed. Total cost per hectare must include ALL costs: seed, fertiliser, chemicals, fuel, contract harvest, machinery depreciation and overhead allocation. Excluding fixed costs produces a break-even that is too low, creating false confidence in marginal enterprises.

3 Worked examples

⚠️ Illustrative example only — not clinical or professional instruction.

Basic

Wheat program — standard season

Given: Total cost/ha: $520 (all variable + fixed) | ASW price: $340/t

Working: Break-even yield: $520 / $340

Answer: 1.53 t/ha break-even

💡 5-year average yield 2.5 t/ha. Margin: (2.5-1.53) x $340 = $330/ha. BEY is 61% of average — good risk profile.

Standard

Canola program — full input package

Given: Total cost/ha: $680 (including $120/ha herbicide program) | Canola price: $780/t

Working: Break-even yield: $680 / $780

Answer: 0.87 t/ha break-even

💡 Low in absolute terms but canola has 1-in-5 total failure risk. Factor crop failure probability into the enterprise decision.

Advanced

What price do I need to break even at 2.8 t/ha?

Given: Total cost/ha: $620 | Expected yield: 2.8 t/ha

Working: Break-even price: $620 / 2.8

Answer: $221/t minimum wheat price

💡 At current spot $280/t there is $59/t price margin. Consider forward contracting a portion to lock in above break-even before sowing.

4 Sanity check

Must include ALL costs

Variable: seed + fertiliser + chemicals + fuel + contract harvest | Fixed: depreciation + insurance + admin + land cost

Excluding fixed costs understates break-even by 20-30%.

Risk assessment threshold

Break-even >70% of 5-year average yield = high risk

Below 60% of average = good risk profile.

Use conservative budget price

3-year average or forward contract price — not current spot

Markets can fall 30-40% between seeding and harvest.

Calculate by paddock, not farm average

Productive paddocks subsidise marginal ones in farm averages

5 Common errors

Error	Cause	Consequence	Fix
Not including fixed costs and overheads	Only counting direct variable inputs	Break-even understated 20-30% — enterprise appears viable when it's not	Include machinery depreciation, insurance, administration, land cost in every break-even calculation.
Using current spot price as budget price	Assuming prices remain stable to harvest	Crop planned as profitable but harvested into falling market	Use 3-year rolling average or available forward contract price. Risk-manage production before sowing.
Farm break-even average for paddock decisions	Single farm-wide calculation	Marginal paddocks sown at a loss	Calculate break-even by paddock using paddock-specific inputs and yield history.
Not recalculating after significant input price change	Setting at budget time and not updating	Outdated break-even for in-season decisions	Recalculate whenever a significant cost change occurs — fertiliser price move, diesel spike or yield revision.